Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run – Principles of Macroeconomics
Why is there a trade-off between Unemployment and Inflation? Phillips in The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate of Change In the long run, higher AD only causes inflation and no increase in real GDP in. Let us learn about the Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment. However, towards the end of the s, the stable relationship between the two began To explain Friedman's long run Phillips curve, we need to learn the concept of. A rigid relation cannot be established between inflation and unemployment. at all in the long run as shown on the Long Run Phillips Curve shown below.
The lowest wage that an unemployed worker would accept, if it were offered, is called the reservation wage. This is the wage an individual would accept; any offer below it would be rejected. Once a firm offers the reservation wage, the individual will take it and the job search will be terminated. Many people may hold out for more than just a wage—they may be seeking a certain set of working conditions, opportunities for advancement, or a job in a particular area.
In practice, then, an unemployed worker might be willing to accept a variety of combinations of wages and other job characteristics. We shall simplify our analysis by lumping all these other characteristics into a single reservation wage. One might initiate a job search with high expectations and thus have a high reservation wage. As the job search continues, however, this reservation wage might be adjusted downward as the worker obtains better information about what is likely to be available in the market and as the financial difficulties associated with unemployment mount.
We can thus draw a reservation wage curve Figure Similarly, as a job search continues, the worker will accumulate better offers. As long as the reservation wage exceeds the best offer received, the individual will continue searching. The search begins at time t0, with the unemployed worker seeking wage W0. The worker reduces his or her reservation wage and accumulates better offers until the two curves intersect at time tc.
The worker accepts wage Wc, and the job search is terminated. The job search model in Figure We can, however, use the model to reach some conclusions about factors that affect frictional unemployment.
First, the duration of search will be shorter when more job market information is available. Suppose, for example, that the only way to determine what jobs and wages are available is to visit each firm separately. Such a situation would require a lengthy period of search before a given offer was received.
16.3 Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run
Alternatively, suppose there are agencies that make such information readily available and that link unemployed workers to firms seeking to hire workers. In that second situation, the time required to obtain a given offer would be reduced, and the best-offer-received curves for individual workers would shift to the left.
The lower the cost for obtaining job market information, the lower the average duration of unemployment. Government and private agencies that provide job information and placement services help to reduce information costs to unemployed workers and firms. They tend to lower frictional unemployment by shifting the best-offer-received curves for individual workers to the left, as shown in Panel a of Figure Workers obtain higher-paying jobs when they do find work; the wage at which searches are terminated rises to W2.
Programs that provide labor-market information tend to shift the best-offer-received BOR curves of individual workers to the left, reducing the duration of job search and reducing unemployment, as in Panel a.
Phillips curve - Wikipedia
Note that the wage these workers obtain also rises to W2. Unemployment compensation tends to increase the period over which a worker will hold out for a particular wage, shifting the reservation wage RW curve to the right, as in Panel b. Unemployment compensation thus boosts the unemployment rate and increases the wage workers obtain when they find employment.
Unemployment compensation, which was introduced in the United States during the Great Depression to help workers who had lost jobs through unemployment, also affects frictional unemployment.
Because unemployment compensation reduces the financial burden of being unemployed, it is likely to increase the amount of time people will wait for a given wage. It thus shifts the reservation wage curve to the right, raises the average duration of unemployment, and increases the wage at which searches end, as shown in Panel b.
An increase in the average duration of unemployment implies a higher unemployment rate. Unemployment compensation thus has a paradoxical effect—it tends to increase the problem against which it protects. Structural Unemployment Structural unemployment occurs when a firm is looking for a worker and an unemployed worker is looking for a job, but the particular characteristics the firm seeks do not match up with the characteristics the worker offers.The Short Run Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment
Technological change is one source of structural unemployment. New technologies are likely to require different skills than old technologies.
Workers with training to equip them for the old technology may find themselves caught up in a structural mismatch. Technological and managerial changes have, for example, changed the characteristics firms seek in workers they hire. Firms looking for assembly-line workers once sought men and women with qualities such as reliability, integrity, strength, and manual dexterity.
Reliability and integrity remain important, but many assembly-line jobs now require greater analytical and communications skills. Automobile manufacturers, for example, now test applicants for entry-level factory jobs on their abilities in algebra, in trigonometry, and in written and oral communications. Strong, agile workers with weak analytical and language skills may find many job openings for which they do not qualify.
They would be examples of the structurally unemployed. Changes in demand can also produce structural unemployment. As consumers shift their demands to different products, firms that are expanding and seeking more workers may need different skills than firms for which demand has shrunk. Regional shifts in demand can produce structural unemployment as well. The economy of one region may be expanding rapidly, creating job vacancies, while another region is in a slump, with many workers seeking jobs but not finding them.
Public and private job training firms seek to reduce structural unemployment by providing workers with skills now in demand.
Employment services that provide workers with information about jobs in other regions also reduce the extent of structural unemployment. Cyclical Unemployment and Efficiency Wages In our model, unemployment above the natural level occurs if, at a given real wage, the quantity of labor supplied exceeds the quantity of labor demanded. In the long run, wages and prices will adjust so that the real wage reaches its equilibrium level. Employment reaches its natural level.
Some economists, however, argue that a real wage that achieves equilibrium in the labor market may never be reached. They suggest that firms may intentionally pay a wage greater than the market equilibrium. Such firms could hire additional workers at a lower wage, but they choose not to do so. The idea that firms may hold to a real wage greater than the equilibrium wage is called efficiency-wage theory. Why would a firm pay higher wages than the market requires?
Suppose that by paying higher wages, the firm is able to boost the productivity of its workers. Workers who receive real wages above the equilibrium level may also be less likely to leave their jobs. That would reduce job turnover. A firm that pays its workers wages in excess of the equilibrium wage expects to gain by retaining its employees and by inducing those employees to be more productive.
Efficiency-wage theory thus suggests that the labor market may divide into two segments.
Workers with jobs will receive high wages. Workers without jobs, who would be willing to work at an even lower wage than the workers with jobs, find themselves closed out of the market. Whether efficiency wages really exist remains a controversial issue, but the argument is an important one. If it is correct, then the wage rigidity that perpetuates a recessionary gap is transformed from a temporary phenomenon that will be overcome in the long run to a permanent feature of the market.
The argument implies that the ordinary processes of self-correction will not eliminate a recessionary gap Yellen, Key Takeaways Two factors that can influence the rate of inflation in the long run are the rate of money growth and the rate of economic growth. In the long run, the Phillips curve will be vertical since when output is at potential, the unemployment rate will be the natural rate of unemployment, regardless of the rate of inflation.
The rate of frictional unemployment is affected by information costs and by the existence of unemployment compensation. Policies to reduce structural unemployment include the provision of job training and information about labor-market conditions in other regions. Efficiency-wage theory predicts that profit-maximizing firms will maintain the wage level at a rate too high to achieve full employment in the labor market.
Using the model of a job search see Figure A new program provides that workers who have lost their jobs will receive unemployment compensation from the government equal to the pay they were earning when they lost their jobs, and that this compensation will continue for at least five years.
Access to the Internet becomes much more widely available and is used by firms looking for workers and by workers seeking jobs. While the rationale for unemployment insurance is clear—to help people weather bouts of unemployment—especially during economic downturns, designing programs that reduce adverse incentives is challenging.
A review article by economists Peter Fredriksson and Bertil Holmlund examined decades of research that looks at how unemployment insurance programs could be improved.
This suggests the disappearance of trade-off between inflation and unemployment as envisaged by A. Monetary economist headed by Milton Friedman challenged the concept of stable relationship between inflation and unemployment as shown in Fig. According to Friedman such trade-off— negative sloping Phillips Curve—can exist in the short run at least, but not in the long run. In the short run, Phillips Curve may shift either in the upward or downward direction as the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is not stable.
On the other hand, in the long run, according to Friedman, no trade-off exists between inflation and unemployment. That is why a trade-off relationship emerges.
But, in the long run, actual and expected price changes become equal as expectation regarding price changes tend to become rational. This rational expectations view suggests that people guess the future economic events correctly. Thus the impact of expectations, whether adaptive or rational, has an important bearing on the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate.
It is because of expectation, Friedman argues, that there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the long run. Long run Phillips Curve has been shown in Fig. For obvious reasons, SRPC3 describes high expected inflation.
It follows then that, in the long run there is no trade-off.