# Direct causal relationship

### Statistical Language - Correlation and Causation

are basically three types of causal relationships as follows: direct causal relationship (simple model); causal chain (intermediary model); and direct and indirect. A test question may give you four statements and ask you which one shows a " direct causal connection." Example 10, here, is one such question. I have not yet . In statistics, a mediation model is one that seeks to identify and explain the mechanism or Rather than a direct causal relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable, a mediation model proposes that the.

The packaging material might influence shelf life, but the shelf life cannot influence the packaging material used. The relationship is therefore causal. A bank manager is concerned with the number of customers whose accounts are overdrawn. Half of the accounts that become overdrawn in one week are randomly selected and the manager telephones the customer to offer advice.

## Australian Bureau of Statistics

Any difference between the mean account balances after two months of the overdrawn accounts that did and did not receive advice can be causally attributed to the phone calls.

If two variables are causally related, it is possible to conclude that changes to the explanatory variable, X, will have a direct impact on Y. Non-causal relationships Not all relationships are causal. In non-causal relationships, the relationship that is evident between the two variables is not completely the result of one variable directly affecting the other. In the most extreme case, Two variables can be related to each other without either variable directly affecting the values of the other.

The two diagrams below illustrate mechanisms that result in non-causal relationships between X and Y. If two variables are not causally related, it is impossible to tell whether changes to one variable, X, will result in changes to the other variable, Y. The Sobel test is more accurate than the Baron and Kenny steps explained above; however, it does have low statistical power. As such, large sample sizes are required in order to have sufficient power to detect significant effects.

Thus, the rule of thumb as suggested by MacKinnon et al. The Preacher and Hayes Bootstrapping method is a non-parametric test See Non-parametric statistics for a discussion on non parametric tests and their power.

As such, the bootstrap method does not violate assumptions of normality and is therefore recommended for small sample sizes. Bootstrapping involves repeatedly randomly sampling observations with replacement from the data set to compute the desired statistic in each resample.

Computing over hundreds, or thousands, of bootstrap resamples provide an approximation of the sampling distribution of the statistic of interest. This method provides point estimates and confidence intervals by which one can assess the significance or nonsignificance of a mediation effect. Point estimates reveal the mean over the number of bootstrapped samples and if zero does not fall between the resulting confidence intervals of the bootstrapping method, one can confidently conclude that there is a significant mediation effect to report.

Significance of mediation[ edit ] As outlined above, there are a few different options one can choose from to evaluate a mediation model. However, mediation continues to be most frequently determined using the logic of Baron and Kenny [15] or the Sobel test.

### Direct and indirect causal relationship

It is becoming increasingly more difficult to publish tests of mediation based purely on the Baron and Kenny method or tests that make distributional assumptions such as the Sobel test.

Thus, it is important to consider your options when choosing which test to conduct. Such a design implies that one manipulates some controlled third variable that they have reason to believe could be the underlying mechanism of a given relationship. Such a design implies that one measures the proposed intervening variable and then uses statistical analyses to establish mediation. This approach does not involve manipulation of the hypothesized mediating variable, but only involves measurement.

First, it is important to have strong theoretical support for the exploratory investigation of a potential mediating variable. A criticism of a mediation approach rests on the ability to manipulate and measure a mediating variable. Thus, one must be able to manipulate the proposed mediator in an acceptable and ethical fashion. As such, one must be able to measure the intervening process without interfering with the outcome. The mediator must also be able to establish construct validity of manipulation.

One of the most common criticisms of the measurement-of-mediation approach is that it is ultimately a correlational design. Consequently, it is possible that some other third variable, independent from the proposed mediator, could be responsible for the proposed effect. However, researchers have worked hard to provide counter evidence to this disparagement.

Specifically, the following counter arguments have been put forward: For example, if the independent variable precedes the dependent variable in time, this would provide evidence suggesting a directional, and potentially causal, link from the independent variable to the dependent variable. See other 3rd variables below. Mediation can be an extremely useful and powerful statistical test, however it must be used properly. It is important that the measures used to assess the mediator and the dependent variable are theoretically distinct and that the independent variable and mediator cannot interact.

Should there be an interaction between the independent variable and the mediator one would have grounds to investigate moderation. Other third variables[ edit ] 1 Confounding: Another model that is often tested is one in which competing variables in the model are alternative potential mediators or an unmeasured cause of the dependent variable.

An additional variable in a causal model may obscure or confound the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. Potential confounders are variables that may have a causal impact on both the independent variable and dependent variable. They include common sources of measurement error as discussed above as well as other influences shared by both the independent and dependent variables. In experimental studies, there is a special concern about aspects of the experimental manipulation or setting that may account for study effects, rather than the motivating theoretical factor.

Any of these problems may produce spurious relationships between the independent and dependent variables as measured. Ignoring a confounding variable may bias empirical estimates of the causal effect of the independent variable.

A suppressor variable increases the predictive validity of another variable when included in a regression equation. Suppression can occur when a single causal variable is related to an outcome variable through two separate mediator variables, and when one of those mediated effects is positive and one is negative. In such a case, each mediator variable suppresses or conceals the effect that is carried through the other mediator variable.

For example, higher intelligence scores a causal variable, A may cause an increase in error detection a mediator variable, B which in turn may cause a decrease in errors made at work on an assembly line an outcome variable, X ; at the same time, intelligence could also cause an increase in boredom Cwhich in turn may cause an increase in errors X.

Thus, in one causal path intelligence decreases errors, and in the other it increases them. When neither mediator is included in the analysis, intelligence appears to have no effect or a weak effect on errors. However, when boredom is controlled intelligence will appear to decrease errors, and when error detection is controlled intelligence will appear to increase errors.

If intelligence could be increased while only boredom was held constant, errors would decrease; if intelligence could be increased while holding only error detection constant, errors would increase. In general, the omission of suppressors or confounders will lead to either an underestimation or an overestimation of the effect of A on X, thereby either reducing or artificially inflating the magnitude of a relationship between two variables. Other important third variables are moderators.